Global Markets Rally as Strait of Hormuz Reopens but ai concerns unresolved

Global Markets Rally as Strait of Hormuz Reopening Eases Geopolitical Risks
and
Apple recorded 50% Gain Over the Past Year, Why Has That Not Put AI Concerns to Rest

By Josh Gilbert, Lead Analyst, Middle East at eToro

Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates – June 16, 2026: Global markets responded positively after US President Donald Trump confirmed that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen and the US naval blockade will be lifted, bringing relief to investors following months of heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Oil prices moved lower following the announcement, with Brent crude falling more than 3% toward USD 84 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading near USD 81. Equity futures also advanced as investors welcomed the prospect of reduced disruptions to global energy supplies.

The conflict has been a dominant driver of market movements since February, with concerns over shipping routes and energy security contributing to volatility across asset classes. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz removes one of the most significant geopolitical risks facing energy markets and is expected to reduce the risk premium embedded in oil prices.
Oil had already been trending lower in recent weeks as expectations of a diplomatic breakthrough increased. Today's announcement has accelerated that decline, improving the outlook for inflation by lowering energy costs for households and businesses worldwide. The development is also expected to provide support for equities and broader risk assets.

Josh Gilbert, Lead Analyst, Middle East at eToro, said: “Markets have been waiting for this
news for months, and the relief is already showing across asset classes. The confirmation
that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen and the US naval blockade will be lifted removes one
of the biggest geopolitical risks hanging over global markets, which is why we are seeing oil
prices fall and risk assets move higher.
“The reopening of this critical shipping route takes a significant risk premium out of oil prices at a time when investors have been closely watching energy markets for signs of disruption. Lower energy costs can help ease inflationary pressures globally, which is supportive for both consumers and businesses and provides a positive backdrop for equities.
“That said, investors should be careful not to get carried away by today;s market reaction. The agreement is not due to be formally signed until June 19, and recent months have shown how quickly geopolitical developments can change. While the outlook has improved considerably, there is still a difference between optimism and certainty. For global investors, a sustained decline in oil prices would be a welcome development, particularly with a busy week of central bank decisions ahead. A resolution to the conflict
would remove a major tail risk that has weighed on global growth expectations throughout the year. However, markets are likely to remain sensitive to further developments until the agreement is formally signed and implemented.”

Despite the positive market reaction, investors are likely to remain cautious until a formal agreement is signed on June 19. While the announcement represents a significant step toward de-escalation, details of the deal remain limited and recent months have demonstrated how quickly developments in the region can change. The broader outlook for global markets remains constructive. A sustained decline in oil prices could ease pressure on central banks ahead of a key week of monetary policy decisions and help improve global growth expectations. A lasting resolution in the Middle East would remove a major source of uncertainty that has weighed on economic forecasts throughout the year.
However, market participants are expected to remain focused on the finalisation of the agreement before fully pricing in a long-term improvement in geopolitical conditions. While optimism has returned to markets, investors are likely to seek confirmation through the successful signing and implementation of the deal before confidence fully stabilises.

Apple recorded 50% Gain Over the Past Year Has Not Put AI Concerns to Rest

Markets had been longing for Apple’s AI story to take shape, and although that story started at its WWDC event, it wasn’t quite the chapter that investors were hoping for. Apple showed it has a clearer AI strategy, but it did not completely silence concerns that it is still playing catch-up. Shares fell around 2% after the event, after a 50% rally in the last 12 months.
The centrepiece was Siri AI, a long-awaited overhaul designed to make Apple’s voice assistant more
conversational, more contextual and more useful across apps. Apple also rolled out broader AI tools across areas like the Photos app, writing assistance and visual intelligence, while its developer tools will let apps tap into Apple Intelligence and on-device models. It will also lean on Google’s Gemini technology under the hood, a partnership that helps Apple move more quickly in AI without having to build everything from scratch. That adds some external dependency, but Apple’s strength has always been hardware and turning complex technology into simple, useful products that fit seamlessly into its ecosystem.
But the problem is timing. The new Siri won't arrive until later this year, with initial limits around
language and availability in key markets. China and Europe won’t be getting Siri AI at launch, which is
significant given that they are two of Apple’s most important markets. That is disappointing for investors
hoping this would be the catalyst that powers the September iPhone 18 cycle.
According to Josh Gilbert, Lead Analyst, Middle East at eToro, Apple has laid out a more credible AI
vision, and with more than 450 million Apple Intelligence-capable iPhones already in users' hands, it
doesn't need to win the AI race outright, it just needs AI to feel useful and seamless. If it can do that
across the iPhone, Mac, Watch, Vision Pro and future devices, it has a huge opportunity to deepen
loyalty and drive upgrades.
The question now is execution, and the market is telling Apple it wants to see actual delivery rather than
more promises.