Tariffs, Trends, and Treats: Dubai’s Chocolate Market Navigates a Bittersweet 2025

As global cocoa prices soar to record highs, the UAE's chocolate market finds itself balancing a
complex landscape of rising costs, changing consumer preferences, and the promise of growth.
Valued at an estimated USD $736 million in 2024, the market is poised for steady growth over
the next decade, despite facing external pressures and significant price volatility. Josh Gilbert,
Market Analyst at eToro, commented, "While the UAE chocolate sector continues to thrive,
manufacturers are under significant pressure to adapt pricing and product strategies in
response to rising commodity costs and market fluctuations."

The surge in global cocoa prices, which surpassed $12,500 per metric ton in December
2024—driven by poor harvests in West Africa, a key sourcing region—has already started to
affect pricing strategies across the UAE chocolate sector. From March 2024 to January 2025,
cocoa prices increased by as much as 93%, and since March 2023, prices have risen nearly
200%. These price hikes are placing pressure on manufacturers, who are exploring new ways to
maintain profitability while navigating the rising costs of production.

The Rise of ‘Dubai Chocolate’
A bright spot in the market’s evolution is the emergence of “Dubai chocolate,” a locally
produced pistachio-filled, tahini-rich chocolate bar that combines regional flavours with
international indulgence. The product went viral on social media earlier in 2025, leading to long
lines at retailers and strict purchase limits at high-end grocery chains abroad. The popularity of
Dubai chocolate signals a larger trend in the UAE: consumers are increasingly gravitating
toward premium, experience-driven products that reflect local cultural identity while appealing
to global tastes.
This shift towards premium offerings has proven to be a buffer against price-sensitive demand,
particularly among younger demographics who are drawn to unique, Instagrammable treats.
The rise of ‘Dubai chocolate’ also exemplifies the growing interest in products that fuse
traditional Middle Eastern ingredients with the indulgent appeal of chocolate, helping to
further differentiate the UAE market on the global stage.

Outlook for the UAE Chocolate Market

Though cocoa prices have come down in 2025 due to increased production forecasts and a
potential surplus, the outlook remains uncertain as international trade duties and new
sustainability regulations loom on the horizon. Proposed tariffs on cocoa imports from major
African producers may indirectly affect UAE-based producers who rely on global supply chains.
Additionally, compliance with stricter sustainability regulations from key trading partners could
drive up costs over time.
To maintain profitability, many local and global chocolate brands in the UAE are focusing on
premiumisation, flavour innovation, and smaller product formats. This shift has resulted in the
phenomenon of ‘shrinkflation’—where products are getting smaller in size, but prices remain
the same or increase. For consumers, this means paying more per gram of chocolate without
the immediate shock of a direct price hike.

A Sweet Future Despite Challenges
Despite the challenges of rising cocoa prices and evolving external pressures, demand for
chocolate in the UAE is expected to remain strong, particularly during key festive and gifting
seasons such as Eid and Diwali. Josh Gilbert, Market Analyst at eToro, concluded, "The
combination of local preferences, flexible sourcing, and innovative product design ensures that
chocolate manufacturers in the UAE will likely continue to thrive in a market where tradition
and trend go hand in hand. Manufacturers who adapt quickly to changing trends, embrace local
tastes, and manage cost pressures will remain well-positioned for long-term success."
The UAE's chocolate market may be facing a bittersweet moment in 2025, but with resilience
and innovation, it is set to sustain its growth in an ever-evolving global landscape.